Tuesday, October 21, 2008

My 2008 Voters' Guide

I've filled-out my ballot and mailed it in so the 2008 election is basically over for me. I understand that campaigns are able to tell that I've submitted my ballot, so I will hopefully receive fewer campaign solicitations.

Here is my voters' guide for the Portland, Oregon ballot and some of the endorsements that contributed to my decision.

results & polls

me↓ newspapers PACs & orgs
WW Merc J.O. TheO Trib Skan LWV↓ EMO↓ BRO↓ NARAL↓ Sierra↓

WW: Willamette Week | Merc: Portland Mercury | J.O.: Just Out | TheO: The Oregonian | Trib: Portland Tribune | Skan: The Skanner | LWV: League of Women Voters of Oregon | EMO: Ecumenical Ministries of Oregon | BRO: Basic Rights Oregon Equality PAC | NARAL: NARAL Pro-Choice Oregon PAC | Sierra: Oregon Sierra Club

US President:

11/03 Electoral-Vote.com:

Obama 353EV McCain 185EV

10/27 Electoral-Vote.com:

Obama 375EV McCain 157EV 6EV
Obama-Biden Obama-Biden Obama-Biden ? Obama-Biden ? Obama-Biden N/A N/A ? Obama-Biden Obama-Biden
US Senator (OR):

10/30, 500 "likely" OR voters, +/-4.5%, (Rasmussen Reports):

Merkley 49% Smith 46% 4% 1%

10/28-10/30, 1,424 "likely" OR voters, +/-2.6%, (PPP (PDF)):

Merkley 51% Smith 43% 4% 2%

10/25-10/26, 672 "likely" OR voters, +/-3.9%, (SurveyUSA):

Merkley 49% Smith 42% 5% 4%

10/10-10/20, 499 OR voters, +/-4.39%, (Riley Res. Assoc.(pdf)):

Merkley 36% Smith 35% O/U 29%
Merkley Merkley Merkley Merkley Smith Smith Merkley N/A N/A ? Merkley Merkley
US Representative (OR 1st District):
Wu Wu ? Haugen Wu ? Wu N/A N/A ? ? Wu
OR Secretary of State:

10/28-10/30, 1,424 "likely" OR voters, +/-2.6%, (PPP (PDF)):

Brown 51% Dancer 40% 9%

09/11-09/14, 500 OR voters, +/-4.4%, (DHM-Tribune):

Brown 33% Dancer 25% Undec. 38%
Brown Brown Brown Brown Brown Brown Brown N/A N/A Brown Brown Brown
OR Treasurer:

10/28-10/30, 1,424 "likely" OR voters, +/-2.6%, (PPP (PDF)):

Westlund 47% Alley 41% 12%

09/11-09/14, 500 OR voters, +/-4.4%, (DHM-Tribune):

Westlund 34% Alley 22% Undec. 40%
Westlund Alley Alley Westlund Alley Westlund Westlund N/A N/A Westlund Westlund Westlund
OR Attorney General:
Kroger Kroger Kroger Kroger Kroger ? Kroger N/A N/A Kroger Kroger Kroger
OR BOLI Commissioner:
Avakian ? Avakian Avakian Avakian ? ? N/A N/A Avakian Avakian Avakian
OR State Senator (District 18):
Burdick Burdick Burdick ? Burdick ? ? N/A N/A ? ? Burdick
OR State Representative (36th District):
Nolan Nolan Nolan ? Nolan ? ? N/A N/A Nolan Nolan Nolan
Multnomah County Sheriff:
Skipper Skipper Skipper ? Skipper Skipper Skipper N/A N/A ? ? ?
Portland City Commissioner, Position #1:
Fritz Fritz Fritz Fritz Fritz Lewis Fritz N/A N/A green light:
Fritz & Lewis
green light:
Fritz & Lewis
Fritz
OR Supreme Court Judge (Position 7): (unopposed incumbent)
Walters ? ? ? ? ? ? N/A N/A ? ? ?
OR Court of Appeals Judge (Position 4): (unopposed incumbent)
Sercombe ? ? ? ? ? ? N/A N/A ? ? ?
OR 4th District Circuit Court Judge (Position 18): (unopposed incumbent)
Ryan ? ? ? ? ? ? N/A N/A ? ? ?
OR 4th District Circuit Court Judge (Position 21): (unopposed incumbent)
Bushong ? ? ? ? ? ? N/A N/A ? ? ?
OR 4th District Circuit Court Judge (Position 27): (unopposed incumbent)
Stuart ? ? ? ? ? ? N/A N/A ? ? ?
West Multnomah Soil & Water Conservation District Director, At Large 1: (No Candidate Filed)
(None) ? ? ? ? ? ? N/A N/A ? ? ?
me↓↑ WW↓↑ Merc↓↑ J.O.↓↑ TheO↓↑ Trib↓↑ Skan↓↑ LWV↓↑ EMO↓↑ BRO↓↑ NARAL↓↑ Sierra↓↑
OR Measure 54: Removes 21-year-old voting requirement:
Yes Yes Yes ? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Neutral ? ?
OR Measure 55: Allows Legislators To Finish Term After Redistricting:
Yes Yes Yes ? Yes Yes Yes Yes Neutral Neutral ? ?
OR Measure 56: Removes Property Tax Double Majority Requirement:
Yes Yes Yes ? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ? Yes
OR Measure 57: Increases Sentences and Addiction Treatment:
Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes ? ?
OR Measure 58: Limits ESL Teaching To Two Years:
No No No No No ? No No No No No ?
OR Measure 59: Creates Unlimited Oregon Income Tax Deduction:
No No No ? No No No No No No No No
OR Measure 60: Determines Teacher Pay By Undefined "Classroom Performance", Removes Seniority Pay:
No No Yes No No ? No Neutral No No No ?
OR Measure 61: Creates Mandatory Minimum Sentences for Some Crimes:
No No No No No No No No No No No ?
OR Measure 62: Allocates 15% of Lottery to Public Safety:
No No No ? No No No No No No No No
OR Measure 63: Exempt Homeowners/Farmers From Building Codes:
No No No ? No ? No No No Neutral No No
OR Measure 64: Penalizes Public Employee Unions For Political Purpose:
No No No No No No No No No No No ?
OR Measure 65: Top Two Run-Off Election System:
Yes Yes No ? Yes ? Yes Neutral Neutral No ? ?
Portland Measure 26-94: Renew $70M (0.04026%) Children's Investment Fund:
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ? ? ? ? ?
PCC Measure 26-95: $375M (0.03290%) Bond to Expand Facilities :
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ? ? ? ? ?
Metro Measure 26-96: $125M (0.00900%) Zoo Improvements:
No No Yes ? Yes No Yes ? ? ? ? ?
me↑ WW Merc J.O. TheO Trib Skan LWV↑ EMO↑ BRO↑ NARAL↑ Sierra↑

WW: Willamette Week | Merc: Portland Mercury | J.O.: Just Out | TheO: The Oregonian | Trib: Portland Tribune | Skan: The Skanner | LWV: League of Women Voters of Oregon | EMO: Ecumenical Ministries of Oregon | BRO: Basic Rights Oregon Equality PAC | NARAL: NARAL Pro-Choice Oregon PAC | Sierra: Oregon Sierra Club


other races I'm watching:

US Representative (OR 5th District):

10/27-10/28, 668 OR 5th Dist voters, +/-3.9%, SurveyUSA:

Schrader 55% Erickson 31% 14%
me WW Merc J.O. TheO Trib Skan LWV↓ EMO↓ BRO↓ NARAL↓ Sierra↓
N/A Schrader ? Schrader Schrader Schrader Schrader N/A N/A ? Schrader Schrader

US Senator (MN):
I'm a fan of Franken and think it's great that a critic is actually running for office. It would also be great to win back Paul Wellstone's seat.

10/30-11/01, 699 "likely" MN voters, +/-3.9%, SurveyUSA:

Coleman 44% Franken 39% 16% 1%

10/28-10/30, 1,050 "likely" MN voters, +/-3.0%, PPP (pdf):

Franken 45% Coleman 40% 14% 1%

10/28, 500 "likely" MN voters, +/-4.5%, Rasmussen Reports:

Coleman 43% Franken 39% 14% 4%

10/22, 500 "likely" MN voters, +/-4.5%, Rasmussen Reports:

Franken 41% Coleman 37% 17% 5%

US Senator (NC):
Admittedly as a partisan, I think it would be sweet payback that Dole would lose Jesse Helms' seat after only one term. Unfortunately, Hagan has refused to issue a statement regarding LGBT issues (see: Pam's House Blend).

10/31-11/02, 2,100 "likely" NC voters, +/-2.1%, PPP (pdf):

Hagan 51% Dole 44% 3% 1%

10/30-11/02, 682 "likely" and actual NC voters, +/-3.8%, SurveyUSA:

Hagan 50% Dole 43% 5% 2%

10/29, 700 "likely" NC voters, +/-4%, Rasmussen Reports:

Hagan 52% Dole 46% 2%

10/18-10/20, 627 "likely" NC voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:

Hagan 46% Dole 45% 5% 3%
WA Governor:
I favor the Democratic candidate for governor of the neighboring state.

10/30-11/02, 663 likely/actual WA voters, +/-3.9%, SurveyUSA:

Gregoire 52% Rossi 46% 2%

10/26-10/27, 630 likely/actual WA voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:

Gregoire 50% Rossi 48% 2%

10/18-10/26, 600 WA reg voters, +/-4.0%, The Washington Poll:

Gregoire 51% Rossi 45% 3%
WA Initiative 1000: Right To Die:
Law is similar to OR's physician assisted suicide which I support.

10/30-11/02, 663 likely/actual WA voters, +/-3.9%, SurveyUSA:

Yes 55% No 40% 5%

10/26-10/27, 630 likely/actual WA voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:

Yes 54% No 37% 9%

10/18-10/26, 600 WA reg voters, +/-4.0%, The Washington Poll:

Yes 56% No 38% 6%
CA Proposition 8: Anti-Gay Marriage Constitutional Amendment:

10/29-10/31, 637 CA "likely" voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:

No 50% Yes 47% 3%

10/18-10/28, 966 CA "likely" voters, +/-3.3%, Field Poll (pdf):

No 49% Yes 44% 7%

10/12-10/19, 1,186 CA "likely" voters, +/-3%, PPIC:

No 52% Yes 44% 6%

10/15-10/16, 615 "likely" CA voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:

Yes 48% No 45% 7%
AZ Proposition 102: Anti-Gay Marriage Constitutional Amendment:

09/25-09/28, 976 reg. voters, +/-3.1%, Cronkite-Eight Poll:

Yes 49% No 42% 9%

10/21/2008 UPDATE: Although I already voted, I added The Skanner because it's a local paper that published a comprehensive endorsement list.
10/27/2008 UPDATE: I added the other races I've been following.
10/30/2008 UPDATE: Added a couple more of
The Portland Tribune's endorsements. Oddly, for a "daily" publication, the Trib has been very slow to issue its recommendations. More disturbingly, it hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate, but its Smith for Senate endorsement presumes an Obama presidency.

No comments: