Nonspecific Blog: 2008 Election Results (UPDATE: Merkley pulls ahead)

President-elect Obama's victory is amazing. Now we just need to countdown to his historic inauguration while watching what pardons and executive orders Bush Jr. will slip-in during his final days.

Below I've posted some of the results. Among the many victories there are some races too close to call and some unfortunate results.

11/05/2008 20:39: Democrat Jeff Merkley has pulled ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith as Multnomah County's totals come. It's still close, but looks good for Merkley.

11/06/2008 11:45: Not only is Sen. Gordon Smith learning the ramifications of campaigning against the state's most populous county, but Bill Sizemore is learning what happens when Multnomah County gets the vote out. The county's voters are defeating his anti-union Measure 64, which had previously appeared to have been approved.

11/06/2008 12:00: Multnomah County voters are also defeating Kevin Mannix's unaffordable and irrational Measure 61.

results & polls

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newspapers

PACs & orgs

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NARAL↓

Sierra↓

US President:

11/05 7:00 PST Electoral-Vote.com:
Obama 364EV (51M popular) ELECTED	McCain 163EV (48M popular)	11EV

11/03 Electoral-Vote.com:
Obama 353EV	McCain 185EV

10/27 Electoral-Vote.com:
Obama 375EV	McCain 157EV	6EV

Obama-Biden

N/A

Obama-Biden

US Senator (OR):

11/06 11:21 1.6M counted OR Elections:
Merkley 48% 783K ELECTED	Smith 45% 740K

10/30, 500 "likely" OR voters, +/-4.5%, (Rasmussen Reports):
Merkley 49%	Smith 46%

10/28-10/30, 1,424 "likely" OR voters, +/-2.6%, (PPP (PDF)):
Merkley 51%	Smith 43%

10/25-10/26, 672 "likely" OR voters, +/-3.9%, (SurveyUSA):
Merkley 49%	Smith 42%

10/10-10/20, 499 OR voters, +/-4.39%, (Riley Res. Assoc.(pdf)):
Merkley 36%	Smith 35%	O/U 29%

Merkley

Smith

Merkley

N/A

Merkley

US Representative (OR 1st District):

11/05 14:33, 280K+ counted (OR Elections):
Wu 71% 199K RE-ELECTED (projected)	18%

Haugen

N/A

OR Secretary of State:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
Brown 50% 848K ELECTED	Dancer 45% 764K

10/28-10/30, 1,424 "likely" OR voters, +/-2.6%, (PPP (PDF)):
Brown 51%	Dancer 40%	9%

09/11-09/14, 500 OR voters, +/-4.4%, (DHM-Tribune):
Brown 33%	Dancer 25%	Undec. 38%

Brown

N/A

Brown

OR Treasurer:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
Westlund 51% 822K ELECTED	Alley 45% 729K

10/28-10/30, 1,424 "likely" OR voters, +/-2.6%, (PPP (PDF)):
Westlund 47%	Alley 41%	12%

09/11-09/14, 500 OR voters, +/-4.4%, (DHM-Tribune):
Westlund 34%	Alley 22%	Undec. 40%

Westlund

Alley

Westlund

Alley

Westlund

N/A

Westlund

OR Attorney General:

11/10 20:00, 1.4M+ counted (OR Elections):
Kroger 72% 1.065M ELECTED	11%	10%

Kroger

N/A

Kroger

OR BOLI Commissioner:

11/10 20:00, 996K+ counted (OR Elections):
Avakian 67% 670K ELECTED	17%	13%

Avakian

N/A

Avakian

OR State Senator (District 18):

11/10 20:00, 57K+ counted (OR Elections):
Burdick 70% 40K RE-ELECTED	Wight 29% 17K

Burdick

N/A

Burdick

OR State Representative (36th District):

11/10 20:00, 31K+ counted (OR Elections):
Nolan 81% 25K RE-ELECTED	14%

Nolan

N/A

Nolan

Multnomah County Sheriff:

11/05 07:14, 132K+ counted (MultCo Elections):
Skipper 81% 108K ELECTED (projected)	18% 24K

Skipper

N/A

Portland City Commissioner, Position #1:

11/10 16:30, 99% MultCo counted (MultCo Elections):
Fritz 70% 151K ELECTED	Lewis 28% 60K

Fritz

Lewis

Fritz

N/A

green light:
Fritz & Lewis

Fritz

OR Supreme Court Judge (Position 7): (unopposed incumbent)

11/04 21:51, 455K+ counted (OR Elections):
Walters 98% 449K ELECTED (projected)

Walters

N/A

OR Court of Appeals Judge (Position 4): (unopposed incumbent)

11/04 21:51, 430K+ counted (OR Elections):
Sercombe 98% 425K ELECTED (projected)

Sercombe

N/A

OR 4th District Circuit Court Judge (Position 18): (unopposed incumbent)

11/04 21:51, 55K+ counted (OR Elections):
Ryan 98% 54K ELECTED (projected)

Ryan

N/A

OR 4th District Circuit Court Judge (Position 21): (unopposed incumbent)

11/04 21:51, 55K+ counted (OR Elections):
Bushong 98% 54K ELECTED (projected)

Bushong

N/A

OR 4th District Circuit Court Judge (Position 27): (unopposed incumbent)

11/04 21:51, 55K+ counted (OR Elections):
Stuart 98% 54K ELECTED (projected)

Stuart

N/A

West Multnomah Soil & Water Conservation District Director, At Large 1: (No Candidate Filed)

(None)

N/A

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OR Measure 54:
Removes 21-year-old voting requirement:

11/10 20:00, 1.5M+ counted (OR Elections):
Yes 72% 1.159M PASSED	No 27% 437K

Yes

Neutral

OR Measure 55:
Allows Legislators To Finish Term After Redistricting:

11/05 20:00, 1.5M+ counted (OR Elections):
Yes 77% 1.215M PASSED	No 22% 353K

Yes

Neutral

OR Measure 56:
Removes Property Tax Double Majority Requirement:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
Yes 56% 930K PASSED	No 43% 715K

Yes

OR Measure 57:
Increases Sentences and Addiction Treatment:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
Yes 61% 1.027M PASSED	No 38% 646K

Yes

OR Measure 58:
Limits ESL Teaching To Two Years:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
No 56% 948K FAILED	Yes 43% 735K

OR Measure 59:
Creates Unlimited Oregon Income Tax Deduction:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
No 63% 1.052M FAILED	Yes 36% 598K

OR Measure 60:
Determines Teacher Pay By Undefined "Classroom Performance", Removes Seniority Pay:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
No 61% 1.039M FAILED	Yes 38% 653K

Yes

Neutral

OR Measure 61:
Creates Mandatory Minimum Sentences for Some Crimes:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
No 51% 860K FAILED	Yes 48% 824K

OR Measure 62:
Allocates 15% of Lottery to Public Safety:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
No 60% 1.005M FAILED	Yes 39% 654K

OR Measure 63:
Exempt Homeowners/Farmers From Building Codes:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
No 54% 901K FAILED	Yes 45% 761K

Neutral

OR Measure 64:
Penalizes Public Employee Unions For Political Purpose:

11/10 20:00, 1.6M+ counted (OR Elections):
No 50% 829K FAILED	Yes 49% 811K

OR Measure 65:
Top Two Run-Off Election System:

11/10 20:00, 1.5M+ counted (OR Elections):
No 65% 1.039M FAILED	Yes 34% 537K

Yes

Neutral

Portland Measure 26-94:
Renew $70M (0.04026%) Children's Investment Fund:

11/05 07:14, 112K+ counted (MultCo Elections):
Yes 70% 79K PASSED	No 33% 29K

Yes

PCC Measure 26-95:
$375M (0.03290%) Bond to Expand Facilities :

11/04 23:51, 199K+ counted (KGW.com):
Yes 51% 101K PASSED	No 49% 97K

Yes

Metro Measure 26-96:
$125M (0.00900%) Zoo Improvements:

11/04 23:51, 277K+ counted (KGW.com):
Yes 56% 156K PASSED	No 44% 121K

Yes

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other races I'm watching:

US Representative (OR 5th District):

11/10 20:00, 320K counted (OR Elections):
Schrader 54% 174K ELECTED	Erickson 38% 122K

10/27-10/28, 668 OR 5th Dist voters, +/-3.9%, SurveyUSA:
Schrader 55%	Erickson 31%	14%

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N/A

Schrader

N/A

Schrader

US Senator (MN):
I'm a fan of Franken and think it's great that a critic is actually running for office. It would also be great to win back Paul Wellstone's seat.

11/06 15:43, 100% (MN SoS):
Coleman 41%1.2115M	Franken 41% 1.2112M	15%

10/30-11/01, 699 "likely" MN voters, +/-3.9%, SurveyUSA:
Coleman 44%	Franken 39%	16%

10/28-10/30, 1,050 "likely" MN voters, +/-3.0%, PPP (pdf):
Franken 45%	Coleman 40%	14%

10/28, 500 "likely" MN voters, +/-4.5%, Rasmussen Reports:
Coleman 43%	Franken 39%	14%

10/22, 500 "likely" MN voters, +/-4.5%, Rasmussen Reports:
Franken 41%	Coleman 37%	17%

US Senator (NC):
Admittedly as a partisan, I think it would be sweet payback that Dole would lose Jesse Helms' seat after only one term. Unfortunately, Hagan has refused to issue a statement regarding LGBT issues (see: Pam's House Blend).

11/05 07:10, 100% (NC SoS):
Hagan 52% 2.2M ELECTED	44% 1.8M

10/31-11/02, 2,100 "likely" NC voters, +/-2.1%, PPP (pdf):
Hagan 51%	Dole 44%

10/30-11/02, 682 "likely" and actual NC voters, +/-3.8%, SurveyUSA:
Hagan 50%	Dole 43%

10/29, 700 "likely" NC voters, +/-4%, Rasmussen Reports:
Hagan 52%	Dole 46%

10/18-10/20, 627 "likely" NC voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:
Hagan 46%	Dole 45%

WA Governor:
I favor the Democratic candidate for governor of the neighboring state.

11/05 12:02, 46% (KGW.com):
Gregoire 52% 704K RE-ELECTED (projected)	Rossi 48% 652K

10/30-11/02, 663 likely/actual WA voters, +/-3.9%, SurveyUSA:
Gregoire 52%	Rossi 46%

10/26-10/27, 630 likely/actual WA voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:
Gregoire 50%	Rossi 48%

10/18-10/26, 600 WA reg voters, +/-4.0%, The Washington Poll:
Gregoire 51%	Rossi 45%

WA Initiative 1000: Right To Die:
Law is similar to OR's physician assisted suicide which I support.

11/05 09:54, 1.6M+ counted (WA Elections):
Yes 58% 939K PASSED (projected)	No 41% 661K

10/30-11/02, 663 likely/actual WA voters, +/-3.9%, SurveyUSA:
Yes 55%	No 40%

10/26-10/27, 630 likely/actual WA voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:
Yes 54%	No 37%

10/18-10/26, 600 WA reg voters, +/-4.0%, The Washington Poll:
Yes 56%	No 38%

CA Proposition 8: Anti-Gay Marriage Constitutional Amendment:

Exit Poll of 2,240 (re-interpreted from CNN's data):

52% Yes

47% No

19%
Boomer
45-64

15%
Gen X
30-44

9%
65+

8%
-29

17%
Boomer
45-64

13%
Gen X
30-44

12%
-29

5%
65+

26%
Conservative

20%
Liberal

6%
M.

23%
Moderate

20%
Liberal

5%
C.

24%
Republican

15%
Democrat

13%
Ind.

27%
Democrat

15%
Independ.

5%
R.

28%
Protestant

19%
Catholic

15%
Protes.

14%
None

11%
Cath.

11/12 07:10, 100% (CA SoS):
Yes 52% 5.9M PASSED	No 47% 5.4M

10/29-10/31, 637 CA "likely" voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:
No 50%	Yes 47%

10/18-10/28, 966 CA "likely" voters, +/-3.3%, Field Poll (pdf):
No 49%	Yes 44%

10/12-10/19, 1,186 CA "likely" voters, +/-3%, PPIC:
No 52%	Yes 44%

10/15-10/16, 615 "likely" CA voters, +/-4%, SurveyUSA:
Yes 48%	No 45%

AZ Proposition 102: Anti-Gay Marriage Constitutional Amendment:

Exit Poll of 1,213 (re-interpreted from CNN's data):

56% Yes

43% No

19%
Boomer
45-64

16%
Gen X
30-44

11%
65+

8%
-29

16%
Boomer
45-64

11%
Gen X
30-44

8%
-29

7%
65+

31%
Conservative

19%
Moderate

5%
L.

22%
Moderate

15%
Liberal

5%
C.

31%
Republican

13%
Independ.

10%
Dem.

19%
Democrat

17%
Independ.

7%
R.

36%
Protestant

12%
Catholic

18%
Protes.

11%
Catholic

8%
None

11/05 12:04, 99.1% (AZ SoS):
Yes 56% 1.04M PASSED (projected)	No 43% 0.80M

09/25-09/28, 976 reg. voters, +/-3.1%, Cronkite-Eight Poll:
Yes 49%	No 42%

Voters' Guide

US Prez	Obama
US Sen	Merkley
US Rep	Wu
OR SoS	Brown
OR Treas	Westlund
OR AG	Kroger
OR BOLI	Avakian
OR Sen	Burdick
OR Rep	Nolan

MultCo Shrff	Skipper
Ptld Comm	Fritz
OR M54	Yes
OR M55	Yes
OR M56	Yes
OR M57	Yes*
OR M58	No
OR M59	No
OR M60	No

OR M61	No
OR M62	No
OR M63	No
OR M64	No
OR M65	Yes
Ptld M26-94	Yes
PCC M26-95	Yes**
Metro 26-96	No**
Revised 10/03/2008 *Revised 10/19/2008

Nonspecific Blog

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

2008 Election Results (UPDATE: Merkley pulls ahead)

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